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04.03.15 07:38
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For half an hour last Friday morning a collective madness seemed to descend upon South Korea's National Assembly.

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Rival lawmakers clashed on the parliament floor as the pro-government party sought in vain to block an impeachment vote against President Roh Moo-hyun. Afterwards, Mr Roh's supporters flung missiles at the parliamentary speaker before slumping to the floor in tears. Even by the feisty standards of South Korea's fractious democracy these events were shocking.

The impeachment of Mr Roh, suspending his presidential powers, has created a vacuum in government. The constitutional court is widely expected to overturn the impeachment, meaning Mr Roh may return to power within a few weeks or months. But for South Korea the loss of political leadership could not have come at a worse time.

The country is entering a critical stage in its development. After more than four decades of rapid expansion, the economy - Asia's fourth-largest - has entered an era of more sluggish growth as competition from China increases. Social divisions are increasing between young liberals and older conservatives. And the country's military alliance with the US - the bedrock of national security - has come under strain as the pair squabble over how to deal with communist North Korea and its nuclear weapons programme.

Last week's political fracas, therefore, is for South Korea part of the wider turmoil of coming to terms with its painful history and an uncertain future. While its newly industrialised economy gives the impression that South Korea is an advanced nation, a deeper exploration of its volatile democracy and corruption-scarred society show it to be a work in progress.

It is true that South Korea recovered from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis more quickly than other fallen "tiger" economies. Indeed, two years ago its future seemed bright: Seoul's "sunshine" policy of engagement with communist North Korea appeared to be easing military tensions. The optimistic mood was encapsulated in massive street celebrations that accompanied the country's hosting of the soccer World Cup in June 2002, when the national team exceeded expectations by reaching the semi-finals. The achievement appeared to be a metaphor for South Korea's arrival among the ranks of advanced nations.

Instead, things have been going wrong ever since. The peninsula was plunged into crisis when the US accused the North of secretly developing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the South's economy slumped again as a consumer spending boom ground to a halt.

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The seeds of this year's political crisis were sown by Mr Roh's election as president in December 2002. The left-leaning former human rights lawyer was swept into office by the votes of young, liberal people hungry for reform of South Korea's rigid and conservative society. However, his first year in office was blighted by conflict with an opposition-controlled parliament and infighting within the ruling camp.

Feuding intensified ahead of next month's general election, which will determine the balance of power in parliament for the next four years. When Mr Roh was criticised by the National Election Committee last month for illegal campaigning on behalf of the pro-government Uri party, his opponents seized on the relatively minor offence as an excuse to impeach him.

Analysts warn that unless the political deadlock is broken Mr Roh's presidency could turn into "five lost years" for a country that should be moving urgently to stay ahead of China. Some fear the country has hit a plateau with little sign of the momentum needed to reach the next level of development. Annual per capita income has been stalled at $10,000 (£5,600, ??8,100) for eight years, compared with more than triple that in Japan. Mr Roh has set a target of doubling the figure to $20,000 within 10 years. But if he is to have a role in striving for that goal he must first hope that the constitutional court restores his powers, then forge a more constructive relationship with parliament. For that to happen he must either seek compromise with opposition parties or hope the Uri party wins enough seats on April 15 to push legislation through parliament.

Such an outcome is possible: Uri is ahead in the polls and stands to benefit from widespread public anger about the impeachment. But even if Mr Roh survives this crisis, it is far from clear whether he has the ability to tackle South Korea's many problems.

South Korea's economy expanded by just 3 per cent last year - not enough for a country that has enjoyed average annual growth of about 7 per cent since the 1960s. Growth has shown signs of recovery this year - driven by strong exports of technology, cars, steel and ships - but the government's 5 per cent target could be threatened if the political crisis affects confidence.

Lim Ji-won, economist at JP Morgan, says the political crisis will not have a big impact on the economy because policy is directed by the finance ministry rather than the presidential Blue House. But the longer-term reforms needed to maintain South Korea's competitiveness require strong leadership from the president and support from parliament.

There are two main obstacles to economic reform: the country's militant labour unions, which drive up wages and cause heavy disruption through strikes; and the sprawling, family-owned chaebol or business groups, such as Samsung, LG and Hyundai, that have an unhealthy dominance over the economy, limiting competition and entrepreneurship. Mr Roh promised to tackle both groups but has made little progress.

Labour militancy is among the reasons why foreign direct investment has more than halved over the past three years. Much of the investment has been lost to China, where labour costs are more than 10 times less. South Korean manufacturers are also moving to China, accelerating the hollowing out of the country's industrial base and increasing unemployment. To remain competitive and create jobs, South Korea needs to develop fresh sources of growth. But investment in areas such as services and science is starved by the concentration of resources on the chaebol, which are hugely powerful in politics and the media.

An ongoing investigation into illegal political fundraising has found that the chaebol donated tens of millions of dollars to politicians before the last presidential election to buy influence. Minority shareholders are beginning to challenge poor corporate governance among the chaebol. But last Friday's failure by foreign investors to oust the fraud-ridden board of SK Corp, part of the third-largest chaebol, at a shareholder meeting, showed the degree of resistance to change.

It is in social and institutional reforms that Mr Roh has enjoyed most success. One of his first acts was to appoint a 46 year-old woman to head the ministry of justice, on e of the most conservative, hierarchical and male-dominated arms of government. More independence has been granted to agencies such as the prosecution, tax and intelligence services, which were previously used by presidents as personal instruments of power.

In domestic politics, Mr Roh set out to eliminate the corruption and regionalism that distort the country's democracy. Revelations that some of Mr Roh's advisers and relatives received bribes damaged his credibility. But the launching of a wide-ranging investigation into political funding has at least brought into the open the corrupt ties between business and politics. By breaking from the ruling Millennium Democratic party, under whose banner he was elected, Mr Roh was seeking to smash the regional boundaries that divide the country's politics. The MDP's support is concentrated in the relatively poor and left-leaning south-west, while the conservative Grand National party is based in the industrialised and right-of-centre south-east. By endorsing his supporters' creation of the Uri party, Mr Roh was trying to create a nationwide reform movement.

Overcoming their traditional rivalry, the GNP and MDP jointly voted for Mr Roh's impeachment to preserve the old system in which their parties dominated power.

They know that an Uri victory next month could break up their parties and redraw the political landscape - exactly what Mr Roh, underestimated as a political strategist, set out to achieve.

The struggle between reformists and traditionalists has echoes of the generational upheaval in western Europe and North America in the 1950s and 1960s. The young are generally contemptuous of their country's old establishment. The fact that young people suffer the highest levels of unemployment is seen as proof that the lack of flexibility in the country's society and economy creates barriers to talent and ambition. It was Mr Roh's anti-establishment credentials - his farming parents were too poor to send him to university and so he taught himself to be a lawyer - that encouraged young people and other disaffected parts of society to vote for him in 2002. "We are sick and tired of the corruption and self-interest of our politicians and businessmen," said Lee min-young, an 18 year-old student among an estimated 50,000 people who rallied on Saturday to protest at Mr Roh's impeachment. Another said: "Mr Roh has many faults but he is the most honest politician we have ever had. His enemies are scared of that honesty."

However, older heads question Mr Roh's ability to steer a steady course for South Korea through this turbulent period. They point to the erratic policymaking, weak leadership and frequent expressions of self-doubt that caused his approval rating to fall below 30 per cent during his first year in office. With the threat from neighbouring North Korea's 1.1m-strong army, and its own economic and democratic institutions still immature, many believe South Korea needs firm and cautious leadership that an inexperienced maverick such as Mr Roh cannot provide.

In particular, critics highlight his shaky stewardship of Seoul's alliance with the US as evidence of his unreliability. Mr Roh was elected on a promise to make Seoul more independent from Washington and improve relations with Pyongyang - exploiting widespread anti-American and pro-North Korean sympathies among young people. While older people remain grateful for the US role in defending the South in the 1950-53 Korean War, many younger people consider the 37,000 US troops in the country as sim ply the latest colonial power to interfere on the peninsula.

With South Korea's economic ties to China now rivalling those with the US - exports to China exceeded those to the US for the first time last year - some analysts see the Korean peninsula shifting inextricably towards Beijing's sphere of influence.

Mr Roh's impeachment shows that South Korea's entrenched political and business establishment is still fighting to protect the status quo. But the forces of change in the country's economy, society and foreign relations may now prove inexorable.

Colourful characters in the Blue House: some of South Korea's past presidents

Kim Dae-jung 1998-03
Attached Image Dissident-turned-statesman who led South Korea's democracy movement in the 1970s and 80s. Exiled to the US after escaping a kidnapping and death sentence by the military regime. Returned to contest successive elections before eventually winning in 1998. Final months in office blighted by corruption scandals involving his sons

 

Chun Doo-hwan 1980-88
Attached Image A military general, Chun seized power from interim president Choi Kyu-hah. Responsible for the so-called Gwangju massacre in 1980, when armed forces were sent to quell an uprising in the city, leaving hundreds of dissidents dead. Stepped down under pressure from the student-led democracy movement

 

Roh Tae-woo 1988-93
Attached Image South Korea's first true democratically-elected president, despite being the military backed candidate. Won the election because the opposition vote was split between rival candidates: Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam. Both would later become president. Roh oversaw Seoul's successful hosting of the 1988 Olympic Games

 

Kim Young-sam 1993-98
Attached ImageFirst civilian president since 1961. Jailed Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo for wrongdoing during the years of military rule. Kim encouraged the rapid expansion of South Korea's industrial conglomerates, the chaebol. Left office under a cloud as the chaebol's heavy debts forced the country to seek a $58bn bail-out from the International Monetary Fund

 

Park Chung-hee 1961-79
Attached ImageSchoolteacher-turned-general who took power in a military coup and scrapped Rhee's fledgling democracy. Lauded by some as father of the nation but despised by others as a brutal dictator, Park was the driving force behind industrialisation. He was shot dead by his own intelligence chief, five years after his wife was gunned down by a North Korean agent

 

Rhee Syng-man  1948-60
Attached ImageA leader of the independence movement during the 1910-1945 Japanese colonial period, Rhee founded the Republic of Korea with US support. Resigned in disgrace after his attempt to win an additional term by rigging election sparked student riots. Spent the rest of his life exiled in Hawaii

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  • 작성자
    Lv.79 재희
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    04.03.15 07:41
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